June was a particularly powerful month for closed sales, but leaves us starting July with a weaker backlog.
8,721 closed listings is what we see right now, but this number will change over the next week or two as corrections are posted. Helped by its 22 working days, June 2015 had the highest number of closed listings since May 2013.
Overall demand remains normal with little signs of change. However overall supply continues to dwindle. The most interesting thing to watch is for which price ranges is supply increasing and which are reducing.
For single family active listings (excluding UCB) within Greater Phoenix:
- Under $100,000 – down to 251 from 277 last month
- $100,000 to $199,999 – up to 2,672 from 2,605 last month
- $200,000 to $299,999 – down to 3,412 from 3,542 last month
- $300,000 to $499,999 – down to 4,315 from 4,408 last month
- $500,000 to $999,999 – down to 2,525 from 2,705 last month
- $1,000,000 and over – down to 1,346 from 1,622 last month
In contrast to previous months, the price range between $100,000 and $199,999 got a little relief while the luxury market lost the most supply in percentage terms. The latter was partly due to a larger number of expiring and cancelled listings.
Here are the basic ARMLS numbers for July 1, 2015 relative to July 1, 2014 for all areas & types:
- Active Listings (excluding UCB): 19,548 versus 24,440 last year – down 20.0% – and down 3.9% from 20,351 last month
- Active Listings (including UCB): 23,228 versus 27,695 last year – down 15.9% – and down 5.3% compared with 24,595 last month
- Pending Listings: 7,007 versus 6,426 last year – up 9.0% – but down 10.4% from 7,819 last month
- Under Contract Listings (including Pending & UCB): 10,747 versus 9,681 last year – up 11.0% – but down 10.9% from 12,063 last month
- Monthly Sales: 8,721 versus 7,228 last year – up 20.7% – and up 5.6% from 8,261 last month
- Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $135.79 versus $129.67 last year – up 4.7% – but down 0.3% from $136.16 last month
- Monthly Median Sales Price: $214,990 versus $198,000 last year – up 8.5% – and up 0.9% from $213,000 last month
Pricing did not change much over the last month, with a slight increase in the monthly median and a slight decrease in the price per square foot. However pricing is substantially higher than it was 6 months ago, especially when considered against the very weak inflation numbers,.
The busy spring is now well and truly over and we are entering the summer doldrums. Contract signings and closings will slow and we are likely to see directionless trends until we get to the end of September.
This commentary was provided by Michael Orr of the Cromford Report. Michael Orr is the Director of the Real Estate Center at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University.